Paradigm Shift in India: Changing Indian Strategic Culture 

In his podcast “Perspectives with Dr. Cheema “ Mr Qamar Cheema  highlighted that India has invited Pakistan to the upcoming SCO summit and there is speculation that India will also send another invitation to Prime Minister Shahbaz Sharif. However, despite these developments External Affairs Minister Dr S Jaishankar has targeted Pakistan for sponsoring terrorism and said that our problem is that Pakistan is our neighbor and unfortunately one can choose its relatives but not neighbors. But the real question is does Pakistan really understand what Dr Jaishankar is bringing up and what is the concept of a new India and what is the paradigm shift?

Dr. Cheema said that if you listen to Dr J Shankar he believes that strategic culture needs to come from history, culture and values. According to him Lord Krishna and Hanuman were the greatest diplomats in the world. While explaining strategic patience, he gave the example of Lord Krishna who forgave Shishupal several times. Mr Jaishankar compared Kurukshetra, where the Mahabharata war took place between the Kauravas and Pandavas as "Multipolar India. "He compared “strategic deception “to Lord Krishna for creating the illusion of a sunset.

Dr Cheema lamented that do people in Pakistan really understand what these things are and how India is incorporating history, language, culture, religion and values in society and what is the concept of new India and the paradigm shift in India?  Unfortunately, the people of Pakistan are so much busy with internal rifts that they have no idea about these concepts which the current regime in India is talking about.

Dr Cheema highlighted that the government of India is working on some important points.

1-India will be a developed country in the next 25 years. This includes increased per capita income and GDP growth. He stated that India is growing at a rapid pace and in the next 25 years what India will do is linked to the political stability of the country.

2- India believes that they have to liberate themselves from the colonial mindset. For instance, on a recent BBC documentary, there was huge criticism by the entire of India. But the key concern is how this will happen and how people will come out of this.

3- Cultural and Heritage. India is taking pride in its values and culture and this will put them in a stronger position. However, in other words, they are trying to bring duties and responsibilities to the people of their country. 

4 India is thinking from the religious lens and not thinking from the nationalist lens only they are taking all other things into consideration. They are talking about non-alignment movement, strategic patience, and diplomacy and believe that their religion has always preached this message. 

The current dispensation in India is trying to make India different from the previous governments and they believe that this is a paradigm shift and this is the new India. Many people believe that they are instilling and incorporating so much religion into diplomacy, politics and state architecture. This is how they have inculcated their religion.

Dr Cheema mentioned that if I would go with the ethos of democracy any political party when they come into power have the capability to change several things if they are supported by the people. If India wants to be a Hindu state then it must be a Hindu state or if India wants to be a secular state it must be secular but people have to decide.

Dr Cheema compared this with Pakistan and said that there is confusion in Pakistan that the whole Pakistan wants the implementation of Shariah but no one has ever voted for the Mullas. However, India is changing at a rapid pace and the current government in India is trying to portray itself as simple but actually, it is interpreting India's history in statecraft. Dr Cheema said that people believe that India is making mistakes in a similar manner that Pakistan has made; to run the country in the name of religion. 

Dr Cheema stressed that this is a very important transformation and it is a top-down transformation. People are buying it because people are already syncing with culture history and values. People are also drawing analogies with Pakistan as it is a Muslim state and it has made Islamic Constitution to run the country.

Let India be the way India wants to be because at the end of the day that is what the people of India want to be. But primarily they are connecting it to the colonial mindset but Modi cannot do this without economic progress, without majority support and without global acceptance because all these things will give him the power to rule the country and manage the country, he concluded. 

Pakistan shall focus on Economy to keep Kashmir issue Alive says Ambassador Chaudhry

Dr. Qamar Cheema interviewed Ambassador Aizaz Chaudhry on his podcast “Dr. Qamar Cheema Show ". During the podcast he asked that it has been noticed that Pakistan does not raise the issue of Kashmir at various forums for example in recent visits of the Prime Minister and Foreign Minister to Saudi Arabia and UAE there was no mention of Kashmir, what do you think that Pakistan has lost its space in regional calculus or Pakistan’s financial compultions have forced Pakistan to stay out of this or the narrative that we will not let India become the regional policeman is becoming difficult for us? What do you think about how difficult it is to keep the Kashmir issue alive?

Ambassador Chaudhary said that Pakistan has always taken a firm stance on the issue of Kashmir. Our leadership always raised this issue of Kashmir at every forum. But this is also a reality that the issue of Kashmir cannot be raised at every forum because the nature of every forum is different. He referred that recent visits of the Prime Minister and Foreign Minister were related to the resources and economy in these visits the issue of Kashmir cannot be discussed. 

Ambassador Chaudhary believes that the Issue of Kashmir has become a bone of contention because of the stubbornness of India. There were two reasons behind India's stubbornness one was the Partition plan and the other was UN resolutions which they are not ready to accept. With time India has become an economic giant and it has become powerful after this world has started looking at India with a different lens. Now they consider the Kashmir issue as a bilateral issue between the two nations and they do not raise their voices anymore.  

Geopolitical trends in the world have changed and India has become successful in suppressing the right of self-determination of the people of Kashmir and we are still unable to stop it. Our policy towards Kashmir is subject to a final settlement and our sentiments and stance towards Kashmir are still the same but at this stage, India has had some edge for some time and no one is stopping them from doing atrocities in Kashmir because of its economic stability. Pakistan should focus on its economic policies in order to emerge as a strong nation and take a firm stance on issues like Kashmir and keep it alive.

Pakistan US Relations does not revolve around only Security says Former Ambassador 

Dr Qamar Cheema spoke with Ambassador Chaudhry at his Podcast Dr Qamar Cheema Show that what do you think after the withdrawal of the US from Afghanistan the relationship between Pakistan and US has become downgraded because relationship was based on security needs and how do you see the future of Pak-US relations?

Ambassador Chaudhry was of the view that relations between Pakistan and US are not limited to the security dimensions or univocal. He said that Pakistan's relations with America are based on broader foundations. There have been ups and downs in the relations. Sometimes government-to-government relations are low or weak but people-to-people relations have always remained very strong. He mentioned that number of Pakistani students are in American universities, in various fields of information technology and the US is still the biggest trading partner of Pakistan. He said that for ups and downs in the relations, we cannot always blame the US these were our own decisions which were wrong and we are facing the consequences. 

Ambassador Chaudhry said that in Afghanistan the US has its own aims and agendas and they needed help because the US cannot defeat the Taliban without the support of Pakistan. After years of war and infighting, they were able to bring the Taliban to the table and they decided to make an interim government in Afghanistan and they left. The mistake they made in Afghanistan was the abrupt withdrawal. But when we look at the situation through the lens of the Taliban they are claiming that they have defeated Russia before and now they have defeated Americans and they can defeat anyone. 

He said that TTP and TTA are two sides of one coin and we should have thought if we do not want the same rule of Shariah in our country why do we want it for Afghanistan? He said that Pakistan never thought that when the Taliban will come into power in Afghanistan they will not demand similar things in Pakistan. He further said that the Taliban have promised three things and they are not fulfilling a single one of them; interim government, women's education and the spread of terrorism. 

Just because of this world is not recognizing them because they believe that Afghanistan will become a hub of terrorism, ISKP, TTP, ETIM, and IMU. The world is blaming all this happened just because of the abrupt withdrawal of the US and West. Ambassador Chaudhry was of the view that regional consensus and support of the international community are needed to deal with the issue Terrorism is an international issue and it cannot be handled single-handedly.

Who takes the lead in Pakistan’s Foreign Policy,  GHQ, or Foreign Office?

Dr. Qamar Cheema interviewed Ambassador Aizaz Chaudhry on his podcast " Dr. Qamar Cheema Show " and asked a question who takes lead in foreign policy and has dominance in foreign policy decision-making? Does Foreign Office take lead or GHQ? 

Ambassador Aizaz Chaudhry said that this is a misconception among the Pakistani people and among various circles that all foreign policy-making is done by the foreign office. The same process is followed in the entire world for example in US State Department, Pentagon, CIA, Treasure and commerce and all departments take decisions unanimously and then they go to the national security council, and then the president of America takes a decision. Input is taken from everyone. 

The same is the case with the Pakistan Foreign Office. Foreign Office takes inputs from all the institutions and then decisions are taken. GHQ plays a role in dealing with issues related to security. Security concerns in Pakistan are very high and Pakistan is sandwiched between India and Afghanistan. The security aspect is always dominant and it will not right to say that only Foreign Office should take the lead and decisions. GHQ should not indulge in the diplomatic affairs of the country.  Ambassador Chaudhry suggested that your face should be Foreign Office and inputs should be taken from all the institutions. He said that in the case of India, all the decisions are guided by intelligence and other stakeholders but the Foreign Office always takes the lead.

Sajid Tarar on Elite Capture, Protests in Gilgit & Gawadar: Pakistan’s War of Survival

Dr Cheema hosted an interview with American Businessman Sajid Tarar

During the interview, Dr. Qamar Cheema asked about the current downfall of PTI keeping in mind the current position of the PTI in Local Bodies Elections in Karachi, what do you think  Imran Khan is only a social media leader or on the ground he has lost the control ?

Sajid Tarar while responding to Dr Cheema’s question said that there are two things Imran Khan was not supported or backed by the Army this time. Secondly, social media and politics are two different things Imran Khan should realize that people with him are very good at tweeting and sending messages on Social media they do not go for voting and votes are given by the old people. Along with this, the person who was contesting for the position of Mayor has also lost the elections and along with this Imran has lost from Hyderabad and dado also and this is a lesson for the nation. Now Imran Khan is saying that these elections were rigged and the irony is that Imran Khan does not agree with the things which he does not like for example he called courts and the election commissions are dubious. He mentioned that at this stage Imran Khan is very confused and even the new COAS has refused to meet him.

Moreover, Imran Khan has two misunderstandings. He believes that after the desolation of the Punjab Assembly and KPK when they will go to the National Assembly and after promising PTI tickets to the people and breaking the people of PML N they will bring the establishment to its knees. This doesn't seem to be possible. It is a fact that he has a big ego and after 62 political gatherings and destroying the country now has decided to go back to the national assembly. Imran Khan should give some money to the country as people in Pakistan are dying of hunger and he is taking U-turn after U-turn.

He also said that people with dual citizenship also think that we have atomic assets and it is the world's responsibility to help us, But for how long?  Now America is declining and they have chosen India against China.  Secondly, it is busy in Ukraine and thirdly internal politics is chaotic  we should not expect that America will help us. 

He said that there is no law and order in the country. Target killings are happening at very petty issues and he referred to the firing in the Lahore bar association l, the firing at Kotla Hospital and the killing of Latif Afridi. He stressed that the current situation in Pakistan is very alarming and the country is on the verge of economic debt and no one is looking at this scenario. It is sad that the way the country is managed entire world is watching. 

Dr Qamar Cheema raised a question at his Podcast that in Pakistan we often see political nepotism. Do you think our leaders have trapped the nation in it or our public like this? Secondly, the situation in peripheral Pakistan such as in Baluchistan and GB where protests are taking place and people like Hadayat Ur Rahman are beaten in Baluchistan and on the other side people sitting in Lahore and Karachi are ruling the country. What do you think will be the future? Do we and our next generation have to live like this? 

He said that the foundation of political nepotism was laid down by Ayub Khan and it is deep-rooted and we cannot go out of this. People in Gilgit Baltistan and Baluchistan are suffering because they do not have food and nobody is bothered and Hadayat Ullah has very innocent demands. People of Balochistan are demanding that their women should not be disrespected and they should be given a pass in order to avoid the checking at crossing points. Instead of resolving these issues, they are arresting Hadayat Ullah Khan which is not the solution to the problem.

He further highlighted that unfortunately when you have been supported by the agencies people can do politics from London. Situations like this prevail in the country. Our political parties are busy with their own nasty politics. He mentioned that there used to be strong competition in Punjab but now the authority has been given to two people: Attah Ullah Tarar and Rana Sana.  It has become a desire to listen to these people saying how we have taken Pakistan out of this economic crisis. At this stage, we need to set up factories and should make a niche for information technology and should teach our generation coding and educate the people. 

We should be aware of the fact that people are leaving the country and how they can be stopped. He said that we compare ourselves with India but we should be aware of the fact their leaders are not running out of the country and do not shift to Landon. They have pride in living in the country and this is how their country is progressing. He said we should promote honor and dignity in our society. We should stay in our country and serve the nations. Our leaders should also stay in the country. 

Dr. Qamar posed a question regarding the Chaudries taking over the PTI and what role they want to play. Sajid Tarar while Responding to this he said that in the past the PTI was scared of Chaudries and they have no choice except to take them to the party because they are unable to mend their relationship with the establishment. The numbers of people are trying to communicate. If Chaudhry take over PTI this will be the loss of PTI. Imran should think about what he is adjusting. The current situation of our country is quite grim and this is the fall of the society but this discourse has been normalized to the extent that no one considers it serious. He applauded that this is how Pakistan is running and the future is highly unpredictable. 

India will be the focus of US diplomacy in 2023

In his podcast, Dr Qamar Cheema said that US administration Pointman for Indo-Pacific Kurt Campbell wrote a book The Pivot The Future of American Statecraft in Asia which talks about the US  growing involvement in the Indo-Pacific.

Dr. Qamar said that during a discussion with a think tank Centre for Strategic Studies and International Relations, it was discussed that in  2023 India would be a key focus of American Diplomacy according to Indo-Pacific Forecast 2023 and along with this it is the desire of the US that India should play a key role in the region.

Dr. Qamar also mentioned the visit of the Foreign Minister Mr. Bilawal Bhutto Zardari to Washington DC for the G77 meeting and now he is also planning another visit in the coming month. It is important to understand why Indians go to America and why Pakistanis go to America.

Kurt M. Campbell who wrote  The Pivot: The Future of American Statecraft in Asia was basically appointed as the pinpoint for Indo-Pacific and Asia by Hillary Clinton while she was in the state department and now he is back as democrats are back in power. Kurt M. Campbell is talking about the proper model of alliances like bilateral and multilateral agreements. He knows what is going to happen in 2023 for example Hiroshima summit in Japan, QUAD Summit in Australia in May, G20 summit in New Delhi in September and president Joe Biden will visit India for this summit and the Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation meeting will happen in San Francisco in November.

He was of the view that it is apprehended that India is heavily dependent on Russian arms and 80% of weapons are of Russian origin "According to a report by Stimson Centre. In past India was not the key focus of American policy but now it has become an important player in American foreign policy. He said that American missions in the region can not be served without the support of India and it has all the key ingredients through which America can kick start its ambitions in the region.

He was of the view that the role that the US wants India to play is to counter China. Anything that is happening is to counter China. He said on the other hand China is going to the countries which are politically vulnerable and have weak economies. This is how China grow its inroads in other countries. Now America wants to diversify its ties with India because they do not want India to depend upon China or Russia. Along with this, they also do not want the Russian military supplies to India to be stopped.

He said that the now US believes that war with China is imminent and they want to enhance ties with India and want all like-minded nations to be together. It is important to note that in the recent visit of Donald Do Assistant Secretary of state and he spoke against China and a strong reaction came from the Chinese side. Moreover, the visit of Donald Do was also planned for Pakistan but we could not receive him because that has become difficult. There is no opportunity for Pakistan.

There is also speculation that  India is trying to become the voice of the Global South and Americans will definitely push for this because of US  Strategic Multi alignment.

When Indians talk about multilateralism they want that America should share their power with them.

This voice of the Global South is basically bringing the people of Africa, Asia and South America together to avoid China from becoming the leader of the global South. 

He said that America is doing exactly the same thing with India that it has done with Europe after World War II and this is a World War II moment for India. This is the rise of India but India will not immediately face the consequences which Europe faced and paid a heavy price. He said that there is uncertainty in the international system and the future of this region is quite unpredictable. Because they all talk about this in the larger picture Indians also believe that the US is also trapping India and this will also cause problems with China.

He said that there is an opinion that in the Ukraine crisis, India has a muted response and they are not talking about it openly.  In December there was summit a  US Africa summit in the US which was held after eight years the US has pledged 55 billion dollars in Africa and intends to invest in the coming three-four years. Compared to this Pakistani economy is crippling and in dire need, of money and the US has only pledged 2 or 3 billion dollars for the next few years which is very low.

In short, the US wants to counter the influence of China in Africa and India and the US are going to supplement each other in order to strengthen their position in Africa. India also believes that it is against imperialism and against China’s new colonialism and solidarity with the global South. 

As a Pakistani, Dr Qamar Cheema wants that there should be discussions and inquiries within Pakistan regarding the current situation.  There should be a focus that why Pakistan is not progressing while India and China are rapidly progressing. In 2023 it is believed that India will grow 50 faster than China. Why Pakistan cannot do this?

He said that India is also moving towards defence indigenization and now India will enhance its defence ties with India. As India and Japan already going to hold joint fighter drills.

In order to strengthen the Air Defence cooperation, the Indian Air Force (IAF) and Japan Air Self Defence Force (JASDF) are executing their very first joint venture in air exercise in  Japan, known as Veer Guardian 2023. Indian contingent participating will include four Su-30 MKI, two C-17 & one IL-78 aircraft, while the JASDF will be participating with four F-2 & four F-15 aircraft. Although India and Japan have defence imbalances and they are in the right position to do so with US, France, and Australia etc in which India SU14 MQ fighter jets and C17 transport plans are included.

Keeping in mind this situation in coming years Pakistan will become irrelevant and in order to remain relevant a proper study should be conducted in Pakistan by the defence and other stakeholders that where Pakistan stands in terms of defence indigenization and how much we have to compete in the coming future. The main aim is to maintain strategic deterrence. 

He concluded by saying that the US is putting a lot of money and resources into India both politically and economically to serve its purpose in Indo -pacific as mentioned by Kurd Campbell also.